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NMHC Quarterly Survey (July 2003)

 NMHC Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions:
Market Indexes
July 2003

  Market Tightness Index1 Sales Volume Index2 Equity Financing Index3 Debt Financing Index4
 Jul. 2003 45 51 49 66
 Apr. 2003 32 48 51 55
 Jan. 2003 29 41 52 59
Oct. 2002 35 58 62 80
Jul. 2002 39 51 65 76
 Apr. 2002 35 40 48 31
Jan. 2002 4 20 36 36

Oct. 2001

9

19

33

81

Jul. 2001

22

41

48

65

Apr. 2001

30

43

45

77

Jan. 2001

47

49

54

90

Oct. 2000

50

47

43

60

Jul. 2000

57

31

45

51

Apr. 2000

60

37

49

38

Jan. 2000

43

24

39

6

Oct. 1999

49

39

39

17

Jul. 1999

55

44

50

32


The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter.  The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, so that they have leading indicator properties and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes.  They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50.  This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).

1A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates market conditions are unchanged.

2A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume around the country is increasing; a reading below 50 that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates market conditions are unchanged.

3An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates equity finance availability is unchanged.

4A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; a reading below 50 that borrowing conditions are worsening; and a reading of 50 indicates borrowing conditions are unchanged.

 

NMHC Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(July 2003) 
 

Question #1: How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch? "Tight" markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are:

  Jul. 2003 Apr. 2003 Jul. 2002

Tighter than three months ago

16% 10% 16%

Looser than three months ago

26% 46%  39%

About unchanged from three months ago

57% 44%  46%

Don't know or not applicable

0%  0%  0%



Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? Compared to three months ago, the sales volume (number of deals) currently is:

  Jul. 2003 Apr. 2003 Jul. 2002

Higher than three months ago

25% 21% 29%

Lower than three months ago

23% 25% 26%

About unchanged from three months ago

51% 54% 44%

Don't know or not applicable

2% 0% 1%



Question #3: What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development? Considering both price and non-price terms, compared to three months ago, equity financing today is:

  Jul. 2003 Apr. 2003 Jul. 2002

More available than three months ago

15% 17%  39%

Less available than three months ago

17% 15% 9%

About unchanged from three months ago

63% 59% 47%

Don't know or not applicable

5% 9% 6%
 


Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing. Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago:

  Jul. 2003 Apr. 2003 Jul. 2002

Now is a better time to borrow

40%  26% 54% 

Now is a worse time to borrow

8%  17% 3%

Conditions are about unchanged

48%  56% 40%

Don't know or not applicable

3%  2%  3%
 


Question #5:  Occupancy rates in most markets are currently at or near cyclical lows. After the markets recover, what do you think is the sustainable long-term occupancy rate?

  July 2003

92 percent or less

18%

93-94 percent

55%

95-96 percent

25%
Higher than 96 percent 2%

Note: The July 2003 survey was conducted July 14-21, 2003. Sixty-one CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide who serve on NMHC's Board of Directors or Advisory Committee responded. The April 2003 survey was conducted April 14-21, 2003; 68 responded. The July 2002 survey was conducted July 22-29, 2002; 60 responded.

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