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NMHC Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions (October 2007)

NATIONAL MULTI HOUSING COUNCIL
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(October 2007)

Market Tightness
Index
1

Sales Volume
Index
2

Equity Financing
Index
3

Debt Financing
Index
4

Oct 2007

46

12

22

17

Jul 2007

55

39

48

26

Apr 2007

56

38

53

54

Jan 2007

54

41

56

56

Oct 2006

70

38

58

63

Jul 2006

85

32

50

29

Apr 2006

83

35

50

21

Jan 2006

83

47

54

48

Oct 2005

87

66

54

38

Jul 2005

80

66

61

53

Apr 2005

78

63

63

54

Jan 2005

65

63

64

56

Oct 2004

60

65

59

58

Jul 2004

72

54

54

36

Apr 2004

59

52

67

47

Jan 2004

52

52

61

64

Oct 2003

54

57

54

43

The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter.  The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, so that they have leading indicator properties and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes.  They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50.  This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).

1 A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 indicates that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

2 A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume around the country is increasing; a reading below 50 indicates that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

3 An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 indicates that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates that equity finance availability is unchanged.

4 A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; below 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are worsening; a reading of 50 indicates borrowing conditions are unchanged.

For the complete historical series, please visitwww.nmhc.org/Content/BrowseIssues.cfm?IssueID=437.

NATIONAL MULTI HOUSING COUNCIL
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(October 2007)

 

INDEX TRENDS

SURVEY QUESTIONS

Question #1:  How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch?   "Tight" markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases.  Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are:

 

October 2007

July 2007

October 2006

Tighter than three months ago

18%

25%

55%

Looser than three months ago

26%

15%

14%

About unchanged from three months ago

56%

59%

31%

Don’t know or not applicable

1%

1%

0%

 

Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? The sales volume (number of deals) currently is:

 

October 2007

July 2007

October 2006

Higher than three months ago

6%

13%

6%

Lower than three months ago

81%

34%

30%

About unchanged from three months ago

12%

53%

61%

Don’t know or not applicable

1%

1%

3%

 

Question #3:  What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development?  Considering both price and non-price terms, equity financing today is:

 

October 2007

July 2007

October 2006

More available than three months ago

2%

9%

22%

Less available than three months ago

59%

13%

6%

About unchanged from three months ago

29%

68%

68%

Don't know or not applicable

10%

11%

4%

 

Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing?  Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago:

 

October 2007

July 2007

October 2006

Now is a better time to borrow

9%

9%

32%

Now is a worse time to borrow

76%

56%

6%

Conditions are about unchanged

11%

29%

52%

Don't know or not applicable

4%

6%

9%

 

Question #5: How has the subprime mortgage meltdown and the subsequent tightening of mortgage credit for home buyers affected renters in the markets you are familiar with?

 

October 2007

There has been a big decrease in the number of renters leaving to become homeowners.

22%

There has been a small decrease in the number of renters leaving to become homeowners.

53%

There has been no impact so far.

24%

Note: The October 2007 Quarterly Survey was conducted October 15-22, 2007. Ninety CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide who serve on NMHC’s Board of Directors or Advisory Committee responded. The July 2007 Quarterly Survey was conducted July 23-30, 2007; 80 responded. The October 2006 Quarterly Survey was conducted October 23-30, 2006; 77 responded.

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