NATIONAL MULTI HOUSING COUNCIL
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(July 2009)
Market Tightness |
Sales Volume |
Equity Financing |
Debt Financing |
|
| Aug. 2009 | 20 | 44 | 39 | 39 |
| Apr. 2009 | 16 | 30 | 29 | 41 |
Jan. 2009 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
26 |
| Oct. 2008 | 24 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
July 2008 |
40 |
17 |
11 |
13 |
Apr. 2008 |
44 |
13 |
13 |
22 |
Jan. 2008 |
33 |
18 |
24 |
45 |
Oct 2007 |
46 |
12 |
22 |
17 |
Jul 2007 |
55 |
39 |
48 |
26 |
| Apr 2007 | 56 |
38 |
53 |
54 |
Jan 2007 |
54 |
41 |
56 |
56 |
Oct 2006 |
70 |
38 |
58 |
63 |
Jul 2006 |
85 |
32 |
50 |
29 |
Apr 2006 |
83 |
35 |
50 |
21 |
Jan 2006 |
83 |
47 |
54 |
48 |
Oct 2005 |
87 |
66 |
54 |
38 |
Jul 2005 |
80 |
66 |
61 |
53 |
Apr 2005 |
78 |
63 |
63 |
54 |
Jan 2005 |
65 |
63 |
64 |
56 |
Oct 2004 |
60 |
65 |
59 |
58 |
Jul 2004 |
72 |
54 |
54 |
36 |
Apr 2004 |
59 |
52 |
67 |
47 |
Jan 2004 |
52 |
52 |
61 |
64 |
Oct 2003 |
54 |
57 |
54 |
43 |
Jul 2003 |
45 |
51 |
49 |
66 |
Apr 2003 |
32 |
48 |
51 |
55 |
Jan 2003 |
29 |
41 |
52 |
59 |
Oct 2002 |
35 |
58 |
62 |
80 |
Jul 2002 |
39 |
51 |
65 |
76 |
Apr 2002 |
35 |
40 |
48 |
31 |
Jan 2002 |
4 |
20 |
36 |
36 |
Oct 2001 |
9 |
19 |
33 |
81 |
Jul 2001 |
22 |
41 |
48 |
65 |
Apr 2001 |
30 |
43 |
45 |
77 |
Jan 2001 |
47 |
49 |
54 |
90 |
Oct 2000 |
50 |
47 |
43 |
60 |
Jul 2000 |
57 |
31 |
45 |
51 |
Apr 2000 |
60 |
37 |
49 |
38 |
Jan 2000 |
43 |
24 |
39 |
6 |
Oct 1999 |
49 |
39 |
39 |
17 |
Jul 1999 |
55 |
44 |
50 |
32 |
The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter. The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, so that they have leading indicator properties and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes. They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50. This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).
1 A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 indicates that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.
2 A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume around the country is increasing; a reading below 50 indicates that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.
3 An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 indicates that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates that equity finance availability is unchanged.
4 A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; below 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are worsening; a reading of 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are unchanged.
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(July 2009)
INDEX TRENDS

SURVEY QUESTIONS
Question #1: How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch? "Tight" markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are: |
|||
|
July 2009 |
April 2009 |
July 2008 |
Tighter than three months ago |
3% | 6% |
16% |
Looser than three months ago |
63% | 73% |
35% |
About unchanged from three months ago |
35% | 20% |
49% |
Don't know or not applicable |
0% | 0% |
0% |
Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? The sales volume (number of deals) currently is: |
|||
|
July 2009 |
April 2009 |
July 2008 |
Higher than three months ago |
12% | 4% |
4% |
Lower than three months ago |
24% | 43% |
70% |
About unchanged from three months ago |
64% | 52% |
25% |
Don't know or not applicable |
0% | 1% |
1% |
Question #3: What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development? Considering both price and non-price terms, equity financing today is: |
|||
|
July 2009 |
April 2009 |
July 2008 |
More available than three months ago |
4% | 4% |
0% |
Less available than three months ago |
25% | 46% |
78% |
About unchanged from three months ago |
68% | 47% |
20% |
Don't know or not applicable |
3% | 4% |
2% |
Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing? Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago: |
|||
|
July 2009 |
April 2009 |
July 2008 |
Now is a better time to borrow |
4% | 14% |
0% |
Now is a worse time to borrow |
25% | 33% |
74% |
Conditions are about unchanged |
68% | 53% |
22% |
Don't know or not applicable |
3% | 0% |
3% |
Question #5: Over the past year, equity finance conditions have been worsening for the apartment industry. Which of the following best explains why? |
|
|
July 2009 |
Deteriorating apartment market conditions as a result of the economic downturn. |
13% |
Lower leverage required by lenders has reduced expected returns. |
7% |
Lower leverage means the same equity capital now supports fewer transactions. |
3% |
Uncertainty about apartment property values has kept equity capital on the sidelines waiting for pricing to “bottom out.” |
76% |
Don’t know or not applicable |
1% |
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