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NMHC Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions (April 2010)

 NATIONAL MULTI HOUSING COUNCIL
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(April 2010)

  

Market Tightness
Index1

Sales Volume
Index2

Equity Financing
Index3

Debt Financing
Index4

Apr. 2010

81

72

71

58

Jan. 2010

38

56

66

49

Oct. 2009

 31

59 

58 

59

Aug. 2009

20

44

39

39

Apr. 2009

16

30

29

41

 Jan. 2009

 11

12

12

26

Oct. 2008

24

5

4

4

July 2008

40

17

11

13

Apr. 2008

44

13

13

22

Jan. 2008

33

18

24

45

Oct 2007

46

12

22

17

Jul 2007

55

39

48

26

Apr 2007

56

38

53

54

Jan 2007

54

41

56

56

Oct 2006

70

38

58

63

Jul 2006

85

32

50

29

Apr 2006

83

35

50

21

The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter.  The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, hence are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes.  They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50.  This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).

1 A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 indicates that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

2 A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume around the country is increasing; a reading below 50 indicates that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

3 An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 indicates that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates that equity finance availability is unchanged.

4 A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; below 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are worsening; a reading of 50 indicates borrowing conditions are unchanged.

For the complete historical series, please visit www.nmhc.org/goto/QuarterlySurvey09.

INDEX TRENDS



SURVEY QUESTIONS 

Question #1:  How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch?   "Tight" markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases.  Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are:

 

April 2010

January 2010

April 2009

Tighter than three months ago

64%  7% 6%

Looser than three months ago

2%  30% 73%

About unchanged from three months ago

34% 62%  20%

Don't know or not applicable

0% 0% 0%
 

Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? The sales volume (number of deals) currently is:

 

April 2010

January 2010

April 2009

Higher than three months ago

48% 23%

4

Lower than three months ago

 3% 12%

43%

About unchanged from three months ago

46% 65%

52%

Don't know or not applicable

3% 0%

1%

 

Question #3:  What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development?  Considering both price and non-price terms, equity financing today is:

 

April 2010

January 2010

April 2009

More available than three months ago

46% 33%

 4%

Less available than three months ago

3% 1%

 46%

About unchanged from three months ago

49% 61%

 47%

Don't know or not applicable

2% 4%

 4%

 

Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing?  Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago:

 

April 2010

January 2010

April 2009

Now is a better time to borrow

18% 10%

 14%

Now is a worse time to borrow

2% 12%

 33%

Conditions are about unchanged

79% 78%

 53%

Don't know or not applicable

2% 0%

 0%

 

Note: The April 2010 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted April 26-May 3, 2010; sixty-one CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide who serve on NMHC’s Board of Directors or Advisory Committee responded. The January 2010 Quarterly Survey was conducted January 19-26, 2010; 69 responded. The April 2009 Quarterly Survey was conducted April 20-27, 2009; 79 responded.

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