NMHC Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions (October 2008)

NATIONAL MULTI HOUSING COUNCIL
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(October 2008)

	Market Tightness Index¹	Sales Volume Index²	Equity Financing Index³	Debt Financing Index⁴
Oct. 2008	24	5	4	4
July 2008	40	17	11	13
Apr. 2008	44	13	13	22
Jan. 2008	33	18	24	45
Oct 2007	46	12	22	17
Jul 2007	55	39	48	26
Apr 2007	56	38	53	54
Jan 2007	54	41	56	56
Oct 2006	70	38	58	63
Jul 2006	85	32	50	29
Apr 2006	83	35	50	21
Jan 2006	83	47	54	48
Oct 2005	87	66	54	38
Jul 2005	80	66	61	53
Apr 2005	78	63	63	54
Jan 2005	65	63	64	56
Oct 2004	60	65	59	58
Jul 2004	72	54	54	36
Apr 2004	59	52	67	47
Jan 2004	52	52	61	64
Oct 2003	54	57	54	43
Jul 2003	45	51	49	66
Apr 2003	32	48	51	55
Jan 2003	29	41	52	59
Oct 2002	35	58	62	80
Jul 2002	39	51	65	76
Apr 2002	35	40	48	31
Jan 2002	4	20	36	36
Oct 2001	9	19	33	81
Jul 2001	22	41	48	65
Apr 2001	30	43	45	77
Jan 2001	47	49	54	90
Oct 2000	50	47	43	60
Jul 2000	57	31	45	51
Apr 2000	60	37	49	38
Jan 2000	43	24	39	6
Oct 1999	49	39	39	17
Jul 1999	55	44	50	32

The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter. The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, so that they have leading indicator properties and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes. They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50. This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).

¹ A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 indicates that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

² A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume around the country is increasing; a reading below 50 indicates that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

³ An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 indicates that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates that equity finance availability is unchanged.

⁴ A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; below 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are worsening; a reading of 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are unchanged.

Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(October 2008)

INDEX TRENDS

SURVEY QUESTIONS

Question #1: How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch? "Tight" markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are:
	October 2008	July 2008	October 2007
Tighter than three months ago	10%	16%	18%
Looser than three months ago	61%	35%	26%
About unchanged from three months ago	29%	49%	56%
Don't know or not applicable	0%	0%	1%

Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? The sales volume (number of deals) currently is:
	October 2008	July 2008	October 2007
Higher than three months ago	0%	4%	6%
Lower than three months ago	90%	70%	81%
About unchanged from three months ago	10%	25%	12%
Don't know or not applicable	0%	1%	1%

Question #3: What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development? Considering both price and non-price terms, equity financing today is:
	October2008	July 2008	October 2007
More available than three months ago	0%	0%	2%
Less available than three months ago	93%	78%	59%
About unchanged from three months ago	4%	20%	29%
Don't know or not applicable	3%	2%	10%

Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing? Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago:
	October 2008	July 2008	October 2007
Now is a better time to borrow	1%	0%	9%
Now is a worse time to borrow	93%	74%	76%
Conditions are about unchanged	6%	22%	11%
Don't know or not applicable	0%	3%	4%

Question #5: How would you characterize the impact of the current credit market environment on your firm?
	October 2008
Little or no impact on our business	0%
Some impact on current business activities	24%
Some impact on planned business activities only	17%
Material impact on current and proposed business activities	59%

Note: The October 2008 Quarterly Survey was conducted October 14-23, 2008. Seventy CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide who serve on NMHC's Board of Directors or Advisory Committee responded. The July 2008 Quarterly Survey was conducted July 28-August 4, 2008; 89 responded. The October 2007 Quarterly Survey was conducted October 15-22, 2007; 90 responded.

INDEX TRENDS

Related Content