National Multifamily Housing Council
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(January 2018)

 

Market Tightness Index1

Sales Volume Index2

Equity Financing Index3

Debt Financing Index4

January 2018

36

40

58

38

October 2017

37

45

46

51

July 2017

43

47

46

47

April 2017

41

30

42

41

January 2017

25

25

33

14

October 2016

28

42

33

38

July 2016

43

50

44

62

April 2016

43

53

45

50

January 2016

47

46

46

37

October 2015

53

53

52

54

July 2015

61

53

49

35

April 2015

58

52

55

60

January 2015

51

44

55

71

October 2014

52

58

54

71

July 2014

68

56

58

68

April 2014

56

52

53

63

January 2014

41

41

50

42



The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter. The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, hence are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes. They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50. This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).

1 A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 indicates that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

2 A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume and the country is increasing; a reading below 50 indicates that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.

3 An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 indicates that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates that equity finance availability is unchanged.

4 A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; below 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are worsening; a reading of 50 indicates borrowing conditions are unchanged.

For the complete historical series, please visit www.nmhc.org/quarterlysurvey.

 

INDEX TRENDS

QS-Jan-18-Graphs


SURVEY QUESTIONS
 

Question #1: How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch?
“Tight” markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are:

 

January 2018 October 2017

January 2017

Tighter than three months ago

14% 14%

19%

Looser than three months ago

42% 40%

33%

About unchanged from three months ago

42% 45%

48%

Don’t know or not applicable

2% 1%

 0% 

 

Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? The sales volume (number of deals) currently is:

 

January 2018

October 2017

January 2018

Higher than three months ago

19%

 19%

 27%

Lower than three months ago

38%

 28%

 33%

About unchanged from three months ago

38%

 47%

 37%

Don’t know or not applicable

5%

 5%

 3%    


Question #3: What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development? Considering both price and non-price terms, equity financing today is:

 

January 2018

October 2017

January 2017

More available than three months ago

27%

9%

16%

Less available than three months ago

11%

17%

 24%

About unchanged from three months ago

51%

 62%

 55%

Don’t know or not applicable

12%

 12%

 5%


Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing? Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago:

 

January 2018

October 2017

January 2017

Now is a better time to borrow

11%

 14%

 19%

Now is a worse time to borrow

36%

 12%

 25%

About unchanged from three months ago

45%

 62%

 53%

Don’t know or not applicable

8%

 12%

 3%


Question #5: Green financing saw a big increase in 2017. Will this continue in 2018?

 

 

Excluding Don’t Know/Not Applicable

Yes; the market has fully embraced green cost savings and volumes will continue to increase

 35%

 50%

Green financing will still be important this year, but production volume will be flat compared to 2017

22%

31%

Green financing will be more difficult to obtain in 2018 and production volume will decline

13%

19%

Don’t know/no opinion

 29%

 N/A

Note: The January 2018 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted January 16-23, 2018; 144 CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide responded. The October 2017 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted October 10-October 17, 2017; 139 CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide responded. The January 2017 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted January 10-January 17, 2017; 148 CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide responded.